June 6th Mexican Election Security Concerns

Mexico will hold the largest nationwide election in its country's history on June 6. Over twenty thousand political positions will be decided during the election, to include voting on positions in regions largely controlled by cartels.

The areas of concern are mostly in Sonora, Chihuahua, Michoacán, and Baja California, where narcotics and human trafficking are most prevalent. Political violence and assassinations are common in numerous states throughout Mexico and cartel violence has been on the rise over the past year. The rise in crime has created a demand by local nationals for better security from local and national leaders.

Analysis:

• Politically motivated assassination attempts will take place regardless of the winning candidate, dependent on the strategic goals of criminal organisations.

• Protests (potentially violent) will take place before, during, and after elections.

• Election results will likely be perceived as invalid in certain areas due to accusations of, and voter fraud as well as ballot tampering.

• Accusations of foreign influence over election results may result in targeting of foreign visitors in Mexico.

• Rising local violence will increase the demand for government officials to act.

• Civil unrest will increase, including attacks on government officials in Mexico.

Sources:

• 2021 Elections in Latin America: A Preview | AS/COA (as-coa.org)

• Freedom in the World Report 2020 - Mexico (justice.gov)

• Mexico worried by killings of politicians (apnews.com)

• Mexican murders hit new high in first half of 2020 | Reuters

• Michoacán citizens dig trenches across highways to thwart CJNG attacks (mexiconewsdaily.com)

• UN compares discovery of 19 bodies to unsolved massacres (mexiconewsdaily.com)

• In Mexico amid Covid pandemic, oxygen demand has led to crime (nbcnews.com)